Keep It Steady for Super El Nino 2026

On May 14, 2026, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center issued a statement that an El Nino weather pattern has an 82% chance of starting in May to July and continuing through winter 2026-27 for the Northern Hemisphere.  Some are calling this a “Super El Nino” due to the possibility that Pacific Ocean temperatures could rise at least 2 degrees C above normal mean temperatures for the fall and winter.

For North America, El Nino weather patterns are often associated with somewhat reversed weather patterns from north to south.  In the Midwest, El Nino summers may be slightly warmer and wetter, while the southern states can experience cooler and wetter conditions with the possibility of more tornadic activity.  El Nino conditions can also have large effects on other parts of the global food-producing areas; South America can experience wetter conditions, while Australia and Southeast Asia can have extended heat and droughts, leading to wildfires in some areas.

NOAA Outlook Map for Temperature During the 2026 Season

This El Nino pattern may have the ability to break the drought conditions in the western and southern Corn Belt and Plains but could quickly create saturated and waterlogging situations if heavy storms persist.  Areas that have been praying for rain may suddenly be asking for the excess rain to go away.

NOAA Outlook Map for Precipitation During the 2026 Season

Weather is dynamic, but we have better tools today to react to and manage than in the past.  Knowing that in mid-summer the patterns will likely change can help farmers plan nitrogen and water management plans.

For the Midwest, this may mean additional and later nitrogen applications to replace lost N from leaching and denitrification.  Some areas of Iowa and Illinois have experienced wetter planting conditions than in previous years this spring; the nitrogen management plan that worked those years may be lacking in 2026. 

For the Mid-South and Southern Plains, this summer may bring both heavier rains and cooler temperatures.  Again, leaching and denitrification may be increased with the heavier precipitation, but also, cooler temperatures may bring on more disease.  Increased leaf wetness periods, along with loaded inoculum and cooler temperatures, can drive disease pressures higher.  Farmers in these areas must be on the lookout for both nitrogen deficiency and disease development.

In the Western Plains, the Super El Nino patterns may turn dry conditions into wet ones in a short period of time; irrigation units that were engaged early to improve seed germination may fall silent.  However, with increased storm activity may come tornados and damaging winds, not a welcome change.  As with the other regions, nitrogen leaching on sandy soils and denitrification on heavier, poorly drained soils may be concerns to watch out for.

Going into the winter, the effects of the Super El Nino may still be felt; warmer conditions may persist in the winter.  While this may be a welcome sight to upper Midwesterners, warmer conditions may not be conducive to maintaining fall-applied nitrogen in the ammonium form.  Coupled with extra precipitation, more of that hard-earned nitrogen may be lost over the winter going into the 2027 cropping season.  Super El Nino 2026 may have long lasting effects on US producers.

Having digital tools like Sentinel’s All-N and Hydroflow can help farmers understand what is going on in their fields and improve their nitrogen and water management ability.  Utilizing models and forecasted weather, different scenarios can be played out, and once weather events occur, users can readily see the impact and make immediate adjustments.

Don’t let a Super El Nino surprise you – be ready with Sentinel and Nave tools to help you manage your nitrogen and water resources better this summer.